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MartyBent
October 14, 2025
Can Hard Assets Be "Overbought" Right Now?
The stakes are rising.
Marty's Bent
via me
With gold soaring this week, many people are pointing to the charts and proclaiming that its run is about to end because it is entering "overbought" territory according to some metrics like RSI. Bitcoin is currently sitting on the sidelines while the precious metal rallies, but I'm not worried about this. It's pretty typical price action. Gold leads, bitcoin follows. However, we're not here to discuss this particular correlation analysis today.
What I want to posit is exactly what I expressed in the tweet above; I think people who are looking at these "overbought" metrics are going to be in for a surprise over the next decade because they're using metrics that were suited for a particular market regime. That market regime lasted for many decades, but it is becoming clear that something is different in this market. We touched on this last month when we covered the rapid increase in China's gold held on warrant at the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
China Is Prepping For Something
TFTC – Truth for the CommonerMarty Bent
On Friday of last week I sat down with Vince Lanci, who runs vblgoldfix.com, to discuss this topic (among many others) and what it signals to him, and he expanded on what we said in last month's letter on the subject beautifully. Long story short, China has been building up a war chest of gold for the last fifteen years because in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis they were bothered by the bailouts and fiscal spending. As one of the largest holders of US treasuries, China was uneasy about the growing debt in the US and decided to begin the process of diversifying away from treasuries as a reserve asset. They built up a very large base of gold reserves between 2010 and today, got buy in from other countries who realized the risk of holding US treasuries was higher than they previously thought after Russia's assets were frozen in 2022, and have opened up their parallel settlement network to use as an alternative.
By putting their gold on warrant and creating a gold vault network across BRICS countries, China can do trade with counterparties using the yuan and those counterparties can immediately take their yuan and convert it to gold. For a more in-depth explanation, I recommend you take the six minutes to watch this clip from our episode when you're finished reading.
via TFTC
If this is what is happening right now, and I am inclined to believe that it is, I think we're at the beginning stages of this rush to hard assets. Even if you're a country not in the tight-knit BRICS network, if you realize that this is going on you're only move is to begin loading up on gold in an act of self preservation.
The BRICS countries are currently calling the bluff of the dollar reserve system. The debasement trade has entered the popular lexicon. And the efficacy of the US's perceived leverage is being called into question. This was made abundantly clear over the weekend with Trump's flip flopping on the rare earth metals negotiations.
Using traditional metrics and heuristics to navigate these waters will be a futile exercise. Fiat is being called into question and many global superpowers are retreating to neutral hard assets.
The bitcoin price isn't moving much now, but it will most definitely benefit handsomely from this transition. Especially when you consider the fact that it is a strong counter-move to BRICS countries moving to a gold settlement network.
Bitcoin is Being Co-opted and Controlled by the US Government Through ETFs
Vince Lanci delivered a sobering assessment of Bitcoin's current trajectory in our latest conversation. Drawing from his decades of experience watching similar dynamics play out in precious metals markets, Vince argued that the US government is attempting to co-opt Bitcoin through the ETF structure. He explained that by creating spot Bitcoin ETFs, approximately 70% of Bitcoin's liquidity shifted from international markets into US-controlled venues. This wasn't accidental—it's the same playbook used with gold futures in 1974. The government doesn't need to own Bitcoin to control it; controlling the liquidity pool is sufficient. Through margin requirements, settlement rules, and regulatory mechanisms, the US now dominates Bitcoin's price discovery.
"If you can't kill it, you demonize it. If you can't demonize it, you co-opt it." - Vince Lanci
Vince emphasized that this control doesn't mean Bitcoin will fail, but rather that its path forward has fundamentally changed. The US liquidity network is so powerful that even without malicious intent, it naturally becomes the dominant force in any market it touches. For Bitcoin, this means the derivative price now matters more than spot, enabling the same rehypothecation schemes that suppressed gold for thirty years.
Check out the full podcast here for more on gold market manipulation, China's BRICS strategy, and Trump's monetary policy.
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Final thought...
Off to soccer practice.
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