Lyn Alden

Bitcoin & Crypto

npub1a2c...dcw83a

lyn@primal.netwww.lynalden.com/

Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Partner at Ego Death Capital. Finance/Engineering blended background.

Reply6h

Replying to a note

My friend was as shocked as me. He’s the one in the video sending this to the group chat like “wtf”.

Note6h

Gm. One of my favorite places to have my morning cappuccino is in my father in law’s office. The vibes are just so cool and the chairs don’t get sat in enough. So I just come here and appreciate the place and plan my day.

Note4d

Gm. Some Amazon products ship to the U.S. and not to Egypt. So, my friend bought three philosophy books, shipped them to my place, and I brought them to Egypt in my bag when I came. One of them, however, was a crazy misprinting. Inside the philosophy cover was a book on witchcraft. Apart from being funny, it’s actually slightly dangerous. Some countries including the UAE have laws against sorcery. Imagine flying in there, get a random baggage check, and you unknowingly have a witchcraft book ...

ReplyJul 7

Replying to a note

I go swimming or biking.

ReplyJul 6

Replying to a note

I did, yes. In fact I dragged my husband to the theater to watch it, though we missed the imax period by a day.

ReplyJul 4

Replying to a note

In this case I just used Claude directly with a PDF, yes. In some other contexts I use a harness. Two different scenarios. First, I gave Claude the full manuscript and asked it to analyze it across various metrics (plot, characters, theme, prose, etc). It doesn’t know I’m the author. Second, with memory between chats disabled, I started fresh and just gave it the first third. I asked it to analyze it and make predictions about what will happen. It was more accurate than most human beta readers...

ReplyJul 3

Replying to a note

If I feed Claude Fable just part one of the book, and ask it to give me its character trust rankings and make predictions for the rest of the story, I’d say it has a higher-than-average prediction power than my human beta reading sample. While not perfect, it picked up on more tiny clues than most beta readers did and then made reasonable predictions from them.

ReplyJul 3

Replying to a note

Serious Lyn: “Claude, analyze this book and give me a detailed report of its plot, characters, theme, setting, genre, prose, and where it stands in the market.” Unserious Lyn: “Claude, thanks. Now tell me the Dungeons and Dragons alignment (e.g. “chaotic good”) and INT/WIS/CHA scores of all the major characters.”

ReplyJul 3

Replying to a note

I don’t remember which specific prior models but they were during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. The quality of feedback from Fable was better across the board. It didn’t change the conclusion but it gave a more sophisticated treatment of it. Not night-vs-day, but a step up. The near-lack of objective errors was the big step-change though.

ReplyJul 3

Replying to a note

From the start I have no DRM on the kindle ebook. It distributes through kindle but can be moved from that point.

NoteJul 3

Now that Fable is back on the market, I did an apples-to-apples test with it. While I purposely avoided using any AI to write Stolguard, I did feed the finished manuscript into ChatGPT and Claude prior to publication and asked them to analyze the characters, plot, themes, prose, genre, and overall thoughts. Like a robot beta reader among my myriad human beta readers. They did a half-decent job, like a smart high-schooler who read it but skimmed certain parts, made a few objective errors (includ...

ReplyJul 2

Replying to a note

Yeah they just do it to put the fear of god into leveraged shorts from time to time, if the exchange rate is weakening too fast.

NoteJul 2

ReplyJul 1

Replying to a note

One time I was jogging around a forested reservoir, and upon turning a corner in the path, I came across a buck and two does even closer than this. The two does ran away but the buck stood and stared at me, so I stopped and just stood there trying to look chill. He had a big set of antlers and after ten seconds I was thinking, “Uh, are we actually going to fight?” So I’m like mentally bracing for what I would do if he charges at me. But then after eyeing me for a bit, he casually followed the ...

ReplyJun 29

Replying to a note

For me, it was writing the novel that I had in my head for over a decade. Now it’s out in the world in text and audio, no longer that annoying little itch in my brain. Had to learn a new skill along the way, and got into a flow state often while doing it. “One day I’ll have time…” and then a decade went by. Eventually just did it. Feels great.

ReplyJun 24

Replying to a note

I’ve never trusted turtles.

ReplyJun 24

Replying to a note

Fun fact: One of the point-of-view characters is named Ava.

NoteJun 21

That feeling when I spend Friday and Saturday writing about the implications of the US/Iran MOU for my Sunday report, and they end up not even keeping the peace through Sunday.

ReplyJun 17

Replying to a note

Still got the potato camera for now. My laptop will need replacing next year so I might accidentally get a better camera. Will be sad when it happens.

NoteJun 17

My canonical headphones broke a couple days ago. End of an era. Replaced them with the nextgen version of the same thing. Stronger than ever. Most youtube viewers won't notice, but I had to say it somewhere. Might as well say it here on the edge realms. Hurts, man.

ReplyJun 17

Replying to a note

This is probably how my neighbors view me, actually.

ReplyJun 17

Replying to a note

For those who have read Stolguard and want to experience it again (like, say Fight Club needs a second run), give the audio version by and a try. It opens a different experience, and they as narrators truly brought something new to the table with their acting and dedication.

ReplyJun 17

Replying to a note

Always pursue your dreams. And yes, Carla and Walker really knocked it out of the park on this. I can’t overstate how committed they were to getting this right.

ReplyJun 13

Replying to a note

Imo the biggest difference is that private debt bubble peaks are more disinflationary than people think. Money-printing offsets debt destruction. Public debt bubble peaks are more inflationary, with rising fiscal deficits no longer offset by falling interest rates.

NoteJun 13

GM, doing a refresh of some of my giga-long macro charts. Figured I'd post my favorite one here on Nostr first. Readers of Broken Money will recognize the 1920-2022 version of this from that book, which is now extended through 2025. (Digging into this data super deeply back in 2018/2019, along with a bunch of related datasets, is how I came to see that nothing stops this train.)

ReplyJun 12

Replying to a note

I think for many people there’s kind of a bell curve of philosophy, where up to a point it’s increasingly value to study (helps build good reasoning, awareness of multiple different frameworks for things, etc) but then there are diminishing results and potentially even some negative results if you spend too much time on it.

NoteJun 12

Ratings are starting to come in for the audiobook version of Stolguard. Glad to see people are appreciating Walker and Carla’s performance as much as I did! The voices they provided and their attention to detail really helped make it come to life.

NoteJun 11

My husband is like, "Lyn, whenever we're apart, you get weird online." I'm like, "what do you mean?" And he's like, "you make weird bets with people you don't know." And I'm like, "You have made a fair argument, sir. But here we are."

ReplyJun 11

Replying to a note

::super cute hubby, seems younger than you:: I’m rekt. Totally destroyed. The worst thing you could say to a wife. But to answer the rest of your question, that wispy beard or fu man chu is hot. A natural beard that doesn’t cover the lips.

ReplyJun 10

Replying to a note

With rare exceptions, I assume neither men nor women prefer bearded women.

ReplyJun 10

Replying to a note

I for one am in the camp that prefers men with beards. It feels natural to me. Masculine. They were born to have them. There are only two public pictures of my husband, since he prefers privacy, and yeah he has a beard. Not a shocker. But, where I do sympathize with the complexity of this issue, is about convenience. Some men have such thick beards that their lips aren’t even visible. How does that affect kissing? As a woman, do you kiss a coarse furball? What does that feel like? And as a man...

ReplyJun 10

Replying to a note

I like to ask dangerous questions. About beards.

NoteJun 10

I feel like beards need more study. -Measurable differences between bearded and beardless men. -Measurable differences between women who like bearded vs beardless men. It seems like one of the most binary decisions/preferences out there.

ReplyJun 9

Replying to a note

Bronn.

ReplyJun 9

Replying to a note

I for one am a big fan of Odell back on X. I could go into all the debates on whether deleting an account is worth it, about network effects, etc. path dependence. But people want to be where they want to be. And Odell is welcomed where he wants to be, and does good work wherever he is. And you know how I know it’s really Odell on X? Nostr and social graphs, is how. 😉

ReplyJun 7

Replying to a note

For context, Saylor’s company has like 4% of the coins.

ReplyJun 7

Replying to a note

I mean, Fallon is the villain, sir.

ReplyJun 6

Replying to a note

The core realms are more efficient but the edge realms are way cooler.

NoteJun 4

Good afternoon. My June public newsletter, "The Wild West" is now available:This issue discusses: -How the modern period of investing coincided with the comparatively peaceful post-war period, and how that is changing. -Strategies for investing in this new "Wild West" geopolitical environment. -The information bell curve and its implications. -The latest snapshot of the newsletter portfolio.

ReplyJun 3

Replying to a note

Sorry. 😢 Hello. 👍

ReplyJun 3

Replying to a note

He did. He left Britain within the week. He lives both in his native land of Egypt and the U.S.

ReplyJun 3

Replying to a note

Super kind, yeah.

ReplyJun 3

Replying to a note

No, Mohamed doesn't think all foreigners should be excluded. He was shocked at the ratio of foreigners living and working there permanently, not as tourists like him.

NoteJun 3

When my husband Mohamed first visited London a few years ago, his first remark was, “why are there so many foreigners here? I wanted to see more Brits.” And as he was dismayed by the high ratio of foreigners, he ironically meant people who looked like him (and he was aware of the fact). He was like, “I’m not visiting Turkey or Dubai or Pakistan or my own country. I’m visiting Britain. I want to see British people.” Anyway, not all foreigners want to destroy or displace the West and so forth. ...

NoteJun 1

Let’s just say without spoilers my novel doesn’t pull any punches, but also doesn’t set out to make despair-porn either. Choices matter, outcomes are messy, and realism is paramount in that sense. This description, lol:

ReplyMay 31

Replying to a note

Every female voice and every child voice is Carla. Her range is incredible.

NoteMay 29

I was talking to my half-brother about his world travel plans like, “btw if if you ever want to come to Egypt let me know”. And he’s like, “that’s awesome, how about in 3 weeks? Can you be our tour guide for the last five thousand years in the region?” And I’m like, “yeah man, it’ll be fun. Let me, uh, check with our two dozen local relatives and our summer beach plans so we can coordinate between them.” “Checks details.” “…Shit. Alright let’s go!”

NoteMay 28

I wrote a longform piece for Bitcoin Magazine's latest print issue, which includes a series of essays about the world 10 years from now in 2036. They've put up an online version now too: Here's the portion where I talked about risk, about downside scenarios: "If Bitcoin fails to catch on by 2036, I think it will be because humanity didn’t want it, or wasn’t ready for it. The technolog...

NoteMay 26

A really cool (and quite rare) aspect of The Stolguard Incident audiobook is that @nprofile...3py2 and @nprofile...l32v perform full duet narration. In most dual-narrated audiobooks, the male narrator reads all male...

NoteMay 26

GM Not sure why, but I liked the look of this desert sunset last evening.

NoteMay 20

GM. The audiobook version of The Stolguard Incident is now available!It’s dual-narrated by @nprofile...0fhw and @nprofile...3phq , and they brought their full voice acting ability to this. h...

NoteAug 15, 2025

Most people I see who talk about robots quickly replacing humans out in the field (eg not white collar work, not assembly line work, but blue collar work out in the world) haven’t had any experience with what those jobs actually entail.

ReplyMar 24, 2025

Replying to a note

I started that thread after having a recent update on quantum threats, which put quantum near the top of my list.